A new survey by the ifo Institute paints a detailed picture of how artificial intelligence is affecting the German labor market. Over 3,000 companies in Germany currently using AI systems provided insights into their medium-term salary expectations. The results reveal a clear wage gap based on qualification levels and professional experience. Dr. Anna Ruffert led the study at the ifo Institute, which was published in mid-August 2026.
Salary expectations are particularly negative for employees without a university degree and with limited work experience. For workers with less than five years of practical experience, almost every second company, specifically 48.3 percent, expects falling wages over the next five years due to AI integration. In the service sector, this figure rises to 53.3 percent. Companies attribute these expected declines to the increasing automation of routine tasks previously handled by entry-level staff.
Experienced workers with at least five years of practice who lack an academic degree also face potential salary reductions. In the manufacturing sector, 38.9 percent of surveyed businesses expect pay cuts for this group. The figure stands at 41.3 percent in trade and reaches 44.2 percent among service providers. These survey findings illustrate that practical experience alone does not fully shield staff from shifting labor market dynamics.
The outlook is vastly different for highly qualified employees holding a university degree. Surveyed companies expect virtually no pay cuts for academics over the next five years, regardless of their specific work experience. Instead, many executives and human resource managers see strong opportunities for salary increases in this group. Highly educated professionals frequently leverage AI tools to boost overall output, which further strengthens their market position within firms.
These study results highlight an accelerating polarization within the labor market driven by widespread AI implementation. While highly qualified staff benefit from efficiency gains and can command higher compensation, other worker groups face increasing pressure. Industry experts recommend that businesses establish targeted training initiatives for non-academic staff. This approach is essential to prevent broad segments of the workforce from falling behind during ongoing digital transitions.